shall we expect 4900 level coming days below 5050..

Dear CB

pl advice : holding Hindalco naked long okay? pl see moneycontrol message & comment

Country's largest aluminium company Hindalco Industries is expected to report a massive fall of 30% year-on-year in its standalone profit after tax of Rs 496.2 crore, according to CNBC-TV18 poll.
EBITDA too is seen going down by 7.2% to Rs 769 crore for the January-March quarter 2012 from Rs 828.8 crore in a year ago period and EBITDA margins is likely to be at 10.9% versus 12.1%.
However, net sales are seen going up by 2.8% to Rs 7,039 crore from Rs 6,846.4 crore year-on-year.
On quarter-on-quarter basis, the flagship company of the Aditya Birla group is likely to report a growth of 6.8% in net sales and 10% in profit after tax. EBITDA is expected to go up by 17%.

Note - Hindalco will announce only standalone results and hence, Novellis will not be included in numbers.
Net sales will be aided by higher realizations on a QoQ basis due to higher LME prices:
- LME prices have corrected by 12-15% on a YoY basis but will be supported by rupee depreciation of roughly 10% since April 2011
- Metal prices were up 4-10% QoQ though impact was marginally offset by stronger rupee boosting QoQ numbers
- Average LME aluminum and copper prices have increased by 4% and 9% QoQ to USD 2,226/ton and USD 8,318/ton
Volumes:
- Aluminium volumes to be steady on QoQ and up roughly 4-5% YoY
- Copper production to grow 4-5%QoQ and up 8-9% YoY on the back of higher capacity utilisation
- Alumina volumes are likely to marginally increase 2% YoY to 3,50,000 tons
EBITDA to increase QoQ due to higher LME prices but conversely will contract on a YoY basis:
- Product mix and fuel cost in aluminum business will also be carefully monitored
- Aluminum business is likely to face pressure on the YoY margin front due higher input costs
- On a QoQ basis, expect input costs to be stable as cost increase due to coal price revision by CIL (Led by GCV based pricing) to be offset by savings due to normalization of Hirakud operations
- Copper smelting business will benefit from higher Tc/Rc margins and will stand at roughly USc15/lb but this will be nullified by higher costs of production
PAT may take a harder hit:
- PAT may fall more than EBITDA due to higher interest costs and an increase in effective tax rate

please advice on tata motors.

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