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CB Says:
January 16th, 2011
Posted at: 4:21 pm
Hi siva, would advice to hold. keep them a little longer. 1-2 months. will do well once markets settle a bit
Hi kamal, it has strong support at 80. hold it for short term. usually does well as we near budget
Hi hari, most welcome. yes, we do have live charts on www.chartink.com. here you will be able to view live nifty and nifty 50 stocks. . for nifty live chart visit: http://chartink.com/nifty.html and nifty 50 stocks visit: http://chartink.com/livelist.php
matlee Says:
January 16th, 2011
Posted at: 4:57 pm
For information of Boarders,

Bulls seems to have lost control of market
B G Shirsat/Mumbai 16 Jan 11 | 12:43 AM
The Nifty closed below the November 26 low of 5,690 after witnessing a 360-point intra-day volatility due to heavy volume-based buy-sell activity. The bulls tried to salvage the lost ground in the morning session, taking the Nifty from a low of 5,700 to the day's high of 5,830. The bears came centre stage after noon, taking Nifty January futures first below the crucial support level and then below the November 26 low. The Nifty January settled at 5,654 and added 1.46 million shares in open interest, mostly short build-up by bears, the sell-side trades in the initial balance range suggest. The traders booked profit above 5,808 and covered some shorts below 5,700.
The market picture chart, which provides an insight into where the fair value is and who is controlling the market, suggests the Nifty futures may fall around 5,500. The spot Nifty is expected to get time-price opportunities (TPO)-based support at 5,612. However, a strong volume-based sell-off can take the Nifty around 5,515. The upside resistance continued at 5,800.
The liquidity suppliers, the floor traders and day traders, remained net sellers in the initial balance range last week. The value area, the price interval that contains 70 per cent of the day's trading volume, saw change of hands in almost all five trading sessions last week. The point-of-control (PoC), which identifies the price level where the market has spent the most time trading, saw multiple distributions and in the end the market rotated below PoC. These trading indicators suggest that the bulls have lost control of the market.
The only factor favourable for the bulls has been the open interest in Nifty futures, which is manageable at 22.68 million shares. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs), who account for one-third open interest in the derivatives segment, have not built fresh short or long positions despite the Nifty correcting significantly from the higher level. However, the open interest build-up in index options indicates that FIIs have strongly leveraged their positions.
Call and put options data show significant call writing in the 5,600-5,700 call options. There was change of hands in the 5,800-strike call options. On the other hand, participants bought the 5,500-5,600-strike put options and covered short positions in the 5,700-6,000-strike puts options. This suggests a weak undercurrent.
CB, replies: Hi matlee, thanks for the detailed analysis
Rohitt Says:
January 16th, 2011
Posted at: 4:59 pm
Sir moving levels of sesagoa future for the next 2 days.can we short tomorrow?
rgds
rohitt
CB, replies: Hi Rohitt, it has strong support at 320-322 levels. don't short it yet. on a 1-2rs dip, one can go long
matlee Says:
January 16th, 2011
Posted at: 5:00 pm
NSE INDEX LAST CLOSE 5654.55
On charts trend has changed from positive to negative for short & medium term however long term trend is still positive. As index has closed below the important support of 5690 therefore chances of index to come till 5550 is visible on charts. As index is trading in oversold zone therefore any dip in the index & its listed stocks would be a buying opportunity for traders as a bounce could be sharp where as resistance is expected at 5874 & 5982. Trading range for Index is (5550 – 5820).
Weekly Resistance 5718 | 5757 | 5820 | 5922
Weekly Support 5591 | 5552 | 5489 | 5387

Best stocks which looks attractive to Buy from the NSE index.
BPCL: Start accumulating this stock at everydip / cmp as it has witnessed a third leg of correction & now expected to be range bound with positive bias. Long trend is very strong on charts and in 8-10 months target would be around 900.

DLF: Stock is consolidating in a range 250 – 400 on medium term charts; as current close is near its lower level of the range therefore value buying would be witnessed at dips by investors / traders.
SIEMENS: Trading in a range of 856 – 680; wait to buy at dips support is expected at 734 & 680 however resistance at 784 & 801.
CB, replies: Hi matlee, thanks for the detailed analysis
matlee Says:
January 16th, 2011
Posted at: 5:00 pm
Wkly Tech Analysis: Bears gaining strength
Rex Cano/Mumbai 16 Jan 11 | 12:57 AM
The BSE Sensex swung in a range of 908 points. From a high of 19,720, the index tumbled to a low of 18,811, and finally settled with a loss of 831 points at 18,860. Earning worries and fears of rate increases in the backdrop of high inflation, coupled with sell-off by foreign institutional investors (FII), weighed on investor sentiment.
Among index stocks, HDFC Bank was the major loser, down 9.5 per cent at Rs 2,053. Jaiprakash Associates, Larsen & Toubro, HDFC, Reliance, Tata Steel, Bajaj Auto, NTPC, Maruti Suzuki, Infosys and Cipla shed five-eight per cent each. Bharti Airtel, up one per cent, was the sole notable gainer.
Once below the crucial support zone, there were no takers in the market. The Nifty, after breaking 5,870 on the first day of the week, witnessed unabated selling and eventually dipped below its recent November low of 5,690. The index ended the week with a loss of 4.2 per cent (250 points) at 5,655.
The NSE Nifty is now just 44 points shy of its long-term (200-days) daily moving average (DMA). Last time the index dipped below this major level was in May 2010, following which it recovered quickly within a span of six trading days. However, in 2008, when the Nifty broke below its 200-DMA, we witnessed a steep fall of over 56 per cent in the following months, and the index took almost 11 months recoup.
Case 2008 v/s 2010
The reason for the steep fall in 2008 was global financial crisis, wherein the world markets went in a free fall and there was a panic-like situation. However, in 2009, when the markets dipped briefly, FIIs and India Inc earnings turned the tide in favour of a quick rebound.
The situation this time is completely different. On the positive front, the world markets are at multi-month highs compared to the weakness in our markets. On the negative front, we are in the earnings season, but the bigger worries for us are pullout by FIIs and rate increases.
Also, this time, more than the economic and fundamental factors, technicals could play spoilsport for the bulls, as almost 2/3 of the Nifty 50 stocks are trading either on the verge or of below the 200-DMAs. As many as 14 Nifty components have broken below the 200-DMAs so far this year. And more importantly, these include select heavyweights like ICICI Bank, Larsen & Toubro, ONGC, Reliance Industries and State Bank of India. Other major stocks are - Axis Bank, Bajaj Auto, BPCL, HDFC Bank, Hero Honda, IDFC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Maruti and Punjab National Bank.
Earlier, in 2010, 12 more stocks which slipped below the 200-DMA are yet to recover. Prominent among these are BHEL, DLF, NTPC, JP Associates, Reliance Communications, Reliance Infrastructure, SAIL, Sesa Goa and Suzlon. Others are Power Grid, Reliance Capital, Reliance Power.
HDFC, Ambuja Cement, Cipla, Jindal Steel, Siemens, Sterlite and Tata Power are the other seven stocks which are on the verge of breaking the long-term moving average.
Given this dicey situation, it seems that the bears definently have the upper hand. However, it should be noted that the Nifty is heading towards multiple support levels. Hence, bottom-fishing at lower levels cannot be ruled out as daily charts are close to the oversold zones. The 200-DMA is at 5,600 and the medium-term (50-weeks) moving average is at 5,500. A break of both in the worst case scenario could see the index tumble to 5,250, the short-term (20-months) moving average.
All-in-all, it's going to be yet another volatile week given the action on the earnings front and government moves to tackle inflation. Weekly support is seen at 5,550-5,490 and resistance at 5,755-5,820.
Barring Bharti Airtel, Hero Honda, ACC, ONGC, Power Grid, Reliance Communication and Sesa Goa, most other Nifty 50 stocks are likely to exert downward pressure.
CB, replies: Hi matlee, thanks for the detailed analysis
shiva Says:
January 16th, 2011
Posted at: 5:26 pm
CB I am holding following stocks..and I will need the money in march .. pls tell me whether they can recover back..or shall I book loss now itself ...
NELCO 300 @ 120 (cmp 102)
TWL 50 @ 520(480)
Texmaco 400 @ 53(48)
Avon 3000 @ 7.5(6.2)
TTL 300 @44(35)
cipla 100 @ 370(340)
GATI 200 @ 75(60)
CUB 200 @ 51(44)
UBL 25 @ 520(480)
CB, replies: Hi shiva, its likely to recover back. for now these are a hold. could see some bounce as we near budget
dak Says:
January 16th, 2011
Posted at: 5:38 pm
Hi CB, Just saw your post recommending DSP blackrock - good to hear you're suggesting MFs for SIPs as well. Can you tell me whether I should go for Axis Triple advantage? I was advised that one by my consultant because it had 20% in gold, which according to him was good. What do you say ?
CB, replies: Hi dak, yes, its a safe bet for long term.. go with a SIP in it.
Ravikumar Sivaramakrishnan Says:
January 16th, 2011
Posted at: 6:42 pm
Dear Chirag,
Good Evening.
Want to know stocks with their weightage in Nifty50, CNX100, CNX 500, Midcap, Bank Nifty. where is these details In nseindia.com ?.
CB, replies: Hi Ravikumar Sivaramakrishnan, yes, or you can check on moneycontrol.com
shriniwas Says:
January 16th, 2011
Posted at: 7:00 pm
Dear Cb, Holding 3 penny stocks in my portfolio incurring heavy losses. suggest me where to avg/sell/hold???
birla cotsyn @1.10 /fcs @5.25 /birla power @ 2.00
CB, replies: Hi shriniwas, don't avg these yet.. these are a hold for now. keep these for med term. fundamentally are sound companies
Suraj Says:
January 16th, 2011
Posted at: 7:11 pm
CB sir,
can shree ashtavinayak bounce back after some releases this year. Isnt it available at a very catchy price ?
Plz advice
CB, replies: Hi Suraj, not sure of Shree Ashtavinayak. birla and avon can add 40-50%
Suraj Says:
January 16th, 2011
Posted at: 7:17 pm
Sir,
Ur target for 1 yr - Birla Power solutions and Avon corp ?
CB, replies: Hi Suraj, not sure of Shree Ashtavinayak. birla and avon can add 40-50%
KKSR Says:
January 16th, 2011
Posted at: 7:26 pm
Hi Karthick / CB, Wish you a very Happy Pongal!! Can you advise the target price for Balram Chini & Vijaya Bank for coming week? Thanks
CB, replies: Hi KKSR, Happy Pongal.. Balrampur can see 84. not sure of vijaya bank yet
matlee Says:
January 16th, 2011
Posted at: 7:30 pm
Dear fellow Boarders, See below what ONE MARKET EXPETS SAYS, I still remember, in the first week of March 2009, when ICICI Bank was already @ 258 (most other NSE/BSE Gem of a companies), this Market expert was telling there is no SUPPORT AT ALL FOR ICICI BANK, He among most other MARKET EXPERTS advised not to buy stocks @ those DIRT CHEAP LEVELS, You all know very well how the stocks and the market turned up and up.
THESE EXPERTS ARE AGAIN AT WORK, NOT ALLOWING ANY RETAILS INDIVIDUAL TO BUY WHEN QUALITY STOCKS OF GOOD COMPANIES ARE AVAILABLE AT 52 WEEK LEVEL,
IGNORE THESE EXPERTS AND BUT GOOD STOCKS AT CURRENT LEVELS, OR IF MARKET GOES DOWN AT STILL LOWER LEVELS, THESE STOCKS WILL COME BACK IN NO TIME AND WE CAN EARN GOOD RETURN. IF YOU WAIT TO SEE THE BOTTOM WE WILL MAKE THE SAME MISTAKES OF PAST TWO YEARS.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL

Sudarshan Sukhani, of Technical Trends, in a chat with ET Now talks about the market.
If we close the week below 5700 what is the next strategy?
This is a choppy market. Choppy markets are essentially untradeable. There is no trade here. In the morning it goes up, in the afternoon it comes down, it goes up, it comes down - the net result is zero. It is important to clarify this so that nobody gets caught and trapped in these half and hour moves.
This time 5700 is not holding and we are heading down. Earlier, I had given target of somewhere around 5300 to 5500 for the Nifty. It seems that we are rushing towards that target. I thought it will take some time but the market is not obliging.
What about stock specific activity?
You cannot buy as we speak. We have already broken 5700. This is not a time to buy, you have to be patient. Professional traders should be looking to go short. They can go short now because this is the fourth break as we are speaking. There is a lot of risk but they have to understand that risk. For investors, do not try to buy anything, wait patiently - this market is not for you now.
Is there anything from a really long term perspective that you would look to buy into at the current levels?
At current levels, I would not look to buy anything but the Nifty is going to settle down at some level - whether it is 5500 or 5400 or whatever. That will be the time when we will start making our buy list. My advice to people is there is a season in the market, this is not the season to buy. This is a season to be patient and wait for buying opportunities to come.
People have been talking about tightening measures, RBI may raise rates as well. Would that spell a bit of trouble for the rate sensitives?
No they would not because we have been discounting all that, that is how we came down come 6200, 5200, 5650. So I would not go by this news. This new is already part of the price.