The sectors which registered significant growth rates in Q4 of FY09 over Q4 of FY08 are ‘construction’ at 6.8%, `trade, hotels, transport and communication` at 6.3%, `financing, insurance, real estate and business services` at 9.5%, and `community, social and personal services` at 12.5%.

The Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, has released the revised estimates of national income for the financial year 2008-09 and the quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (January-March) of 2008-09, both at constant (1999-2000) and current prices.

2. The CSO has also released the corresponding annual and quarterly estimates of Expenditure components of the GDP in current and constant (1999-2000) prices, namely the private final consumption expenditure, government final consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, change in stocks, valuables, and net exports.

REVISED ANNUAL ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME, 2008-09

3. The advance estimates of national income for the year 2008-09 were released on 9th February, 2009. These estimates have now been revised incorporating latest estimates of agricultural production, index of industrial production and performance of key sectors like, railways, transport other than railways, communication, banking and insurance and government expenditure.

4. The salient features of these estimates are detailed below:
(a) Estimates at constant (1999-2000) prices

Gross Domestic Product

5. GDP at factor cost at constant (1999-2000) prices in the year 2008-09 is now estimated at Rs. 33,39,375 crore (as against Rs. 33,51,653 crore estimated earlier on 9th February, 2009, showing a growth rate of 6.7 per cent (as against 7.1 per cent in the Advance Estimates) over the Quick Estimates of GDP for the year 2007-08 of Rs. 31,29,717 crore, released on 30th January 2009. The downward revision in the GDP growth rate is mainly on account of lower performance in almost all the sectors excluding ‘construction’ and ‘community, social and personal services’ than anticipated.

6. The sectors which showed growth rates of 5 per cent or more, are ‘construction’ (7.2 per cent), ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ (9.0 per cent), ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’ (7.8 per cent), and ‘community, social and personal services’ (13.1 per cent).

National Income

7. The net national product (NNP) at factor cost, also known as national income, at 1999- 2000 prices is now estimated at Rs. 29,41,971 crore (as compared to Rs. 29,61,249 crore estimated earlier), during 2008-09, as against the previous year’s Quick Estimate of Rs. 27,64,795 crore. In terms of growth rates, the national income is estimated to rise by 6.4 percent during 2008-09, in comparison to the growth rate of 9.1 per cent in 2007-08.

Per Capita Income

8. The per capita income in real terms (at 1999-2000 prices) during 2008-09 is estimated to attain a level of Rs. 25,494 (as against Rs. 25,661 estimated on 9th February, 2009), as compared to the Quick Estimates for the year 2007-08 of Rs. 24,295. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 4.9 per cent during 2008-09.

(b) Estimates at current prices

Gross Domestic Product

9. GDP at factor cost at current prices in the year 2008-09 is estimated at Rs. 49,33,183 crore, showing a growth rate of 14.2 per cent over the Quick Estimates of GDP for the year 2007-08 of Rs. 43,20,892 crore, released on 30th January 2009.

National Income

10. The NNP at factor cost at current prices is now estimated at Rs. 43,26,384 crore during 2008-09, as compared to Rs. 37,87,597 crore during 2007-08, showing a rise of 14.2 per cent.

Per Capita Income

11. The per capita income at current prices during 2008-09 is estimated to attain a level of Rs. 37,490 as compared to the Quick Estimates for the year 2007-08 of Rs. 33,283, showing a rise of 12.6 per cent.

II ANNUAL ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP, 2008-09

12. Alongwith the Revised Estimates of GDP by economic activity, the CSO is also releasing the estimates of expenditures of the GDP at current and constant (1999-2000) prices. These estimates have been compiled using the data on indicators available from the same sources as those used for compiling GDP estimates by economic activity, detailed data available on merchandise trade in respect of imports and exports, balance of payments, and monthly accounts of central government. As various components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices, the discussion in the following paragraphs is in terms of market prices only.

Private Final Consumption Expenditure

13. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs29,13,386 crore in 2008-09 as against Rs. 25,96,084 crore in 2007-08. At constant (1999-2000) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs. 20,01,488 crore in 2008-09 as against Rs19,45,668 crore in 2007-08. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (1999-2000) prices during 2008-09 are estimated at 54.7 per cent and 55.5 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 55.0 per cent and 57.2 per cent, respectively in 2007-08.

Government Final Consumption Expenditure

14. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 6,16,447 crore in 2008-09 as against Rs. 4,79,099 crore in 2007-08. At constant (1999- 2000) prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs. 3,99,262 crore in 2008-09 as against Rs. 3,32,033 crore in 2007-08. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (1999-2000) prices during 2008-09 are estimated at 11.6 per cent and 11.1 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 10.1 per cent and 9.8 per cent, respectively in 2007-08.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

15. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 18,52,354 crore in 2008-09 as against Rs. 16,05,440 crore in 2007-08. At constant (1999-2000) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs. 11,63,503 crore in 2008-09 as against Rs. 10,75,632 crore in 2007-08. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (1999-2000) prices during 2008-09 are estimated at 34.8 per cent and 32.2 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 34.0 per cent and 31.6 per cent, respectively in 2007-08. Thus, there is an increase of 0.8 percentage points in the estimated GFCF at current prices during 2008-09. The rates of Change in Stocks and Valuables at current prices during 2008-09 are estimated at 3.5 per cent and 1.3 per cent, respectively.

Discrepancies

16. The Discrepancies presented in the national accounts statistics refer to the differences between the GDP estimated by economic activity marked up by net indirect taxes (indirect taxes less subsidies) to arrive at GDP at market prices; and the GDP estimated from the expenditure side. These discrepancies are the sum total of (i) the statistical discrepancy in the National Disposable Income and its Appropriation Account, (ii) errors and omissions in the Capital Finance Account (in the estimation of gross capital formation), (iii) adjustment of merchandise exports to the change of ownership basis in the External Transactions Account, and (iv) adjustment of merchandise imports to the change of ownership basis, also in the External Transactions Account.

The component-wise break-up of the discrepancies is available at the time of releasing the Quick Estimates of National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation on 31st January, when all the above accounts are compiled based on detailed data given in the balance of payments statistics. The estimates of
Saving and Gross Capital Formation (which is estimated using the funds-flow approach as sum of saving and net capital inflow from abroad) and their rates in terms of GDP at market prices are also released at the same time, as these are compiled using the detailed data available from central and state government accounts and on the private corporate sector from the Reserve Bank of India. Thus, the estimates of saving and capital formation for the year 2008-09 are not presented in this press release.

17. The discrepancies at current and constant (1999-2000) prices during 2008-09 are estimated at (-) 0.7 per cent and 2.6 per cent, respectively of the GDP at market prices, as against the corresponding rate of (-) 0.3 per cent and 1.5 per cent, respectively in 2007-08.

18. Estimates of gross/net national product, gross/net domestic product and per capita income, alongwith GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for the years 2006-07, 2007-08 and 2008-09 at constant (1999-2000) and current prices are given in Statements 1 to 4.

II QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR Q4 (JANUARY-MARCH), 2008-09

(a) Estimates at constant (1999-2000) prices

19. The four quarters of a financial year are denoted by Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4. GDP at factor cost at constant (1999-2000) prices in Q4 of 2008-09 is estimated at Rs. 9,02,924 crore, as against Rs. 8,53,785 crore in Q4 of 2007-08, showing a growth rate of 5.8 per cent. The sectors which registered significant growth rates in Q4 of 2008-09 over Q4 of 2007-08 are ‘construction’ at 6.8 per cent, ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ at 6.3 per cent, ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’ at 9.5 per cent, and ‘community, social and personal services’ at 12.5 per cent.

20. The PFCE and GFCF at constant (1999-2000) market prices in Q4 of 2008-09 are estimated at Rs. 5,04,342 crore and Rs. 3,10,576 crore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF as percentage of GDP at market prices in Q4 of 2008-09 were 51.4 per cent and 31.6 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 52.1 per cent and 31.0 per cent, respectively in Q4 of 2007-08.

(b) Estimates at current prices

21. GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q4 of 2008-09 is estimated at Rs. 12,89,616 crore, as against Rs. 11,94,578 crore in Q4 of 2007-08, showing a rise of 8.0 per cent. 22. The PFCE and GFCF at current market prices in Q4 of 2008-09 are estimated at Rs. 7,49,639 crore and Rs. 4,84,263 crore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF at current prices as percentage of GDP at market prices in Q4 of 2008-09 are estimated at 53.8 per cent and 34.8 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 50.4 per cent and 33.4 per cent, respectively in Q4 of 2007-08.

23. Estimates of GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for the four quarters of 2006-07, 2007-08 and 2008-09 at constant (1999-2000) and current prices, are given in Statements 5 to 8. 24. The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter April-June, 2009 (Q1 of 2009-10) will be on 31.08.2009.

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