A special series run by CNBC-TV18 called Global Markets: Turning Point? elaborates on whether this indeed is the turnaround if the forceful nature of the global as seen in the recent past is anything to go by. Some of the economic data points have improved over the last couple of months which is why the question needs to be asked whether indeed we are at a turning point in global equity markets.

Anthony Bolton, President – Investment, Fidelity International, was the legendary fund manager of the Fidelity Special Situations Fund, which was a big outperformer since the early 1980s and today he advises overseas Fidelity’s investment group across the world and also mentors all of its young fund mangers.

Bolton feels a new bull market has started, which will last several years. “The exact trajectory is very difficult to predict though,” he said. At some stage, he said, investors sitting on cash will panic and that money on the sidelines would get reinvested. “I think that phase is some time this year. But exactly when it is is very difficult to say.”

Abby Joseph Cohen, President, Global Markets Institute, Goldman Sachs, said gains from this point will depend upon fundamental developments. He sees fair value for the S&P 500 at about 900. “This was a very significant upmove from 666 we reached in early March. The view few months out suggest that the S&P 500 would be at fair value at about 1,025-1,050, using the Goldman Sachs economic and profit forecast, which have been among the lowest on Wall Street.”

Here is a verbatim transcript of Anthony Bolton and Abby Joseph Cohen’s exclusive interview on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.

Q: Let me start by asking you that very basic question which I alluded to – have we turned a corner in global markets with our powerful recent rally or is it too premature or too early to say that?

Bolton: I think it is a turning point. Obviously predicting the market is not easy but there are three things that I particularly look at when I try and identify tops or bottoms in the market. The first thing is the cycle how compared to previous cycles how far have we fallen and how long have we fallen and the S&P for instance if March was the low, has fallen 57% which makes it one of the deepest bear markets over the last 100 years or so.

So I think we have fallen enough. But then I look at sentiment and behavior and all the sentiment indicators indicate the people are very negative about the outlook and cash is high etc. The sentiment indicators in their negativeness are a positive and then thirdly, I look at valuations and valuations to me were very attractive. So everything was in place for early March to be a low in the market.

source: moneycontrol

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