MUMBAI: The extraordinary spurt in the market on Monday has, understandably enough, made most investors optimistic about the road ahead. While there is fundamental logic supporting daring market predictions, fears of the impact of the ongoing global recession are a niggling worry for some.

An ET snap poll of a dozen senior officials at broking outfits and fund houses expect the market to range between 15000 and 20000 levels (on the Sensex) by the end of 2009.

“We are very positive on the market. There is money flowing in; at current rates we’ll easily surpass the $17-billion worth of inflows (recorded in 2007) by March 2010,” said Manish Sonthalia, vice-president (equities) at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. He expects the market to trade in the 16000-18000 bracket at the end of the current year.

According to brokers, the renewed interest of foreign portfolio investors will do a world of good for the Indian market’s sustainability in the coming days. The country has already pocketed equity investments worth around Rs 17,000 crore since April, ahead of traditional favourites such as Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines.

“Foreign investors are now taking a more serious view on the Indian market. One reason for this is the fact that political uncertainties are over for the next five years,” said Shinsei Asset Management CIO N Sethuraman Iyer.
According to Mr Sethuraman, the price-to-earning (PE) of shares would have shot up 3 to 4 times as a result of the Monday rally. “You’ll not be able to justify such high PEs if you estimate 2010 forward earnings. But then if you could take into account the next fiscal’s estimated earnings growth at 15% (out of an 8-9% GDP growth), current PE levels are very much warranted. This probably is one reason why FIIs are now going long on Indian shares,” Mr Sethuraman added. The veteran fund manager expects the market to trade in the 17000-17500 range at the end of 2009.

Most experts ET spoke to are expecting a short correction in the near term, in about 8-10 trading sessions. The general consensus is that markets will shed around 1,500 points over the next two months, before a steady bull market rally gathers steam towards mid-September.

“The phase in and around the Budget will be crucial for the market. We expect the government to take some tough decisions. The government, in its bid to reduce fiscal deficit, may even resort to raising personal and corporate taxes,” said Bonanza Portfolio fund manager Anmol Sekhri. Mr Sekhri feels the Sensex would trend in and around 14500 on December 31, 2009.

Contradicting Mr Sekhri, Mr Sonthalia said: “These are times of recession; India is relatively safe as it is only 30% dependent on global factors (exports, correlation, etc). The remaining 70% is wholly dependent on domestic consumption. The government will not increase personal tax as it will greatly reduce the buying power of people,” he added.

According to brokers and fund managers, the key sectors to look forward are infrastructure (increased spending), realty (some financial support expected), banking and insurance (policy reforms expected), steel and cement.

source: Economictimes

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