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Sensex may fall to 13K levels:Ray Barros

This article was posted on Sep 2, 2009 and is filed under Market Outlook

SINGAPORE: Ray Barros, CEO, Ray Barros Trading Group, says the Sensex could head back to the 12800-13200 levels.

He said he expected the S&P to fall to the 905 levels by the month-end.

Liquidity, he said, could drive Chinese markets higher and crude oil prices are expected to touch the sub $58/bbl levels.

Excerpts from the conversation:

The S&P has traded above 1000 yesterday for the first time in many days. Do you see it going much lower from here?

Barros: Yes, I do. I think this move last night was a start of a seasonal weakness… I’m looking for the S&P and the Dow to hit much lower. As far as the levels are concerned, for S&P, I’m probably looking around the 905-915 mark. On the Dow, it will be above 8003-8004 before the beginning of October.

If you believe that the S&P is likely to fall another 100 points from here, what does it mean for the Indian markets?

Barros: Well, the Indian markets are correlated almost 90% to the global markets. I expect the correlation to continue. I will be looking for the Nifty to head back to about at least the 3009 levels, or probably, 3007 and for the Sensex to head probably to down about 12000-13000 areas.

What’s your call on the Chinese markets? What levels you might have in mind?

Barros: The Chinese markets may have been driven by the flood of money that the Chinese government make available and withdraw from the fear of inflation… I would expect the Chinese markets to come back to above the 2300-2400 areas. I’m not sure what the time frame will be for that move.

What is the crucial level for crude oil? Could it trade downwards more decisively this time around?

Barros: Well, as far as crude oil is concerned, the minimum target will be around $58… this will be the minimum target for the downside move… crude is leading the US stock markets. We could expect crude to bottom first before the US stock markets. So, the levels are about $58-60, and if 58 is away, back down to the $55-54 areas.

source: UTVI

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