New Delhi With three quarters of all districts receiving deficient rainfall so far and the overall rain deficit worsening since last week, the country seems headed into the worst drought year over the last two decades. Signalling the seriousness of the crisis, the Government set up a 10-member Empowered Group of Ministers (EGoM) under Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee today to take quick decisions on relief.

As per the Agriculture Ministry’s Crisis Management Plan, a GoM is set up only when there is a “full-blown drought.”

Maharashtra today was the latest to declare 10 of its districts as affected by drought, taking the number of such districts in the country to 177 — more than one-fourth of all districts.

The overall deficiency in rainfall in the entire country has increased from 25 per cent last week to 29 per cent now.

The India Meteorological Department, earlier this week, downgraded its rainfall estimate for the four-month monsoon season from 93 per cent to 87 per cent.

The Met revealed that the weekly rainfall for the week ending August 12 was 56 per cent below normal. Thus, the first two weeks of August have seen 64 per cent and 56 per cent deficient rainfall. Given the bleak situation, experts believe that this year could result in a drought worse than that in 2002.

An area is said to experience “moderate drought” if rainfall deficiency is between 26 and 50 per cent from normal. Areas where deficiency is more than 50 per cent are classified as “severely drought-affected.”

If the area affected by moderate or severe drought comprises 20-40 per cent of the total geographical area of the country and rainfall deficiency in the entire country for the season exceeds 10 per cent, the year is considered to be a drought year for the country. More than 40 per cent of the area under drought conditions results in an all-India severe drought year.

In 2002, the overall rainfall deficiency for the entire season (June 1 to September 30) was 19 per cent and 29 per cent of the country’s geographical area was affected by drought. That year had seen production of rice fall by 21.5 million tonnes, coarse cereals by 7 million tonnes, pulses by 2.2 million tonnes and wheat by 7 million tonnes.

As of yesterday since June 1, the overall rainfall deficiency is 29 per cent with 72 per cent of Met districts in the country — comprising more than 40 per cent of the geographical area — being rainfall deficient. The sowing of paddy this year is still lagging behind by 57 lakh hectares.

Officials in the Agriculture Ministry concede that rainfall in the next three to four weeks will be “absolutely critical” for the foodgrain production, not only for the ongoing kharif season but also for the coming rabi crops.

Of course, there is still one and a half months left in the monsoon season but the latest forecast gives little indication for hope. It suggests widespread rainfall activity in many parts of the country in the next three to four days. The Met department, which had predicted 101 per cent rains for August, now says there will be only 90 per cent rains this month. The outlook for September looks no better.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will also brief Chief Ministers of all states on Monday on steps to be taken on an urgent basis to ensure that the drought does not translate into a food crisis. The CMs are coming here for a meeting on internal security but considering the seriousness of the crisis on the monsoon front, a special session on drought has been inserted in the afternoon of the day-long meeting.

Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar told reporters today that the first instalment of the central share of Calamities Relief Fund had been released to the states of Assam, Bihar, Jharkhand, Manipur and UP to start immediate relief operations. He said a Central team would visit drought-affected areas next week to assess the loss.

source: ExpressIndia

Tags: agriculture india, drought, drought 2009, drought india, drought india 2009, MET, meteorological department, Sharad Pawar

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