he International Monetary Fund may be predicting a gradual economic recovery for the U.S. but there’s nothing gradual about the way stocks are rallying. The Dow Jones Industrial Average just capped its best monthly gain since 2002 and the S&P 500’s rallied more than 12% since July 10th.

Have we gone too far, too fast?

Peter Boockvar, equity strategist for Miller Tabak thinks so. “Right now everyone is so bullish after a 50% rally. That should be concerning,” he says.

He’s bearish on the U.S. markets for two primary reasons:

* Too much debt both at the consumer and federal level will stunt growth.
* The eventual unwinding of our current fiscal policy will be painful. In the meantime, that same fiscal policy has the ability to prop up the market. As he puts it, “when you’re in a money printing world we’re in right now asset prices can lift.”

Boockvar favors international markets. “I’ve been bullish on commodities, emerging markets that produce commodities and Asia – particularly China, that has driven the rally in commodities,” he says. Admittedly, China may be due for a pullback after an 87% run up in the Shanghai Composite this year. If that happens Boockvar’s confident the “U.S. will be following.”

source: yahoo finance

Tags: bearish, bullish, china, commodity, dow, equity, nasdaq, peter boockvar, recession, recession over

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