Intraday calls for 28-04-11
Markets likely to open flat, next support at 5750, resistance at 5920
Buy Godrej Industries around 188, Target: 195, SL 182
Having power issues, shall be back by 4pm
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Abdullah Says:
April 28th, 2011
Posted at: 7:29 pm
Hi Subhag Ghosh, I think, you and I both know what decrease in premium with increase in OI means. Agree also with the reasoning and examples by Sunil Rao. But the point was:
1) Huge build up of OI in 6000CE
2) Strong hands are the ones who writes options.
Now, Huge build up of OI at a strike alone does never confirm only shorting at that strike. Strong hands generally writes options. But does this implies that they write options all the time? . That was the basis of discussion of the 2nd point.
Now, what if strong hands had gone short in Index & hedged by going long in that (6000CE) Strike? Then also you would have huge build up of OI in that strike.
Later you said, there was a price fall (in premium) at that strike. After that I enquired about theta decay. You said theta decay can never push the price down to 51%. At that point I knew that there was short build up in that strike.
All I said after that is "Let us wait till Expiry and see " . Never countered your views. Even I categorically said you have all the right to believe your views. I do not "mock" anybody. I have the guts to accept the facts as they unfold. Here we come to learn and exchage our views and to assist people (if possible), but never to pull anyone's leg...
subramanivs Says:
April 28th, 2011
Posted at: 7:31 pm
Hi CB,
i have lic housing finance 240 call option. what shall i do?
Kb Says:
April 28th, 2011
Posted at: 7:31 pm
Hi Sunil Rao/Subhag Ghosh , yaar .. OI - Price relation doesn't works in Options. premium affected by many other factors not like futures.
from ur post "and also short index and go long with OTM as hedge" >> thats what happened in this case.
abdullah Says:
April 28th, 2011
Posted at: 7:35 pm
Hi CB, GE :)
Where were u man? Didn't see u all day !!!
Kb Says:
April 28th, 2011
Posted at: 7:42 pm
Hi Sunil Rao, which fund will short 6000 CE when it is trading around 10/15 Rs & 21% vol, and Index is trading around 5900 and huge resistance ahead?
as u said, they gone for short in index with long in call as hedge.. thats the point :)
namonias Says:
April 28th, 2011
Posted at: 7:43 pm
today bought lic may future@233 what tar tomorrow see guideme heavyloss
Abdullah Says:
April 28th, 2011
Posted at: 7:43 pm
Hi Kb, :)
Kb Says:
April 28th, 2011
Posted at: 7:47 pm
Hi s_mangesh, discussion is a way of learning, experience is the key , we are here to discuss & share ideas .. :)
Kb Says:
April 28th, 2011
Posted at: 7:51 pm
Hi Abdullah, :).. at least you are getting my point, thank god. :)
Abdullah Says:
April 28th, 2011
Posted at: 7:59 pm
Hi Kb, Yes ... Nifty fell because of shorting in it... (Simple fact... got to agree with this). what happened in that 6000CE is something different. Not all times all funds make money. It could have so happened also that, some funds were long in 6000CE whereas others were short in that. We will never know this (I guess).
Subhag Ghosh Says:
April 28th, 2011
Posted at: 7:59 pm
What we are trying to achive is to predict the market direction based on option data, any huge build up of option OI above 100 Lakhs acts either as support / resistence based on build up.Just look at yestersday option data, 5900 may call crossed 100 L in OI, even after good opening today the market was unable to hold.The strong hands generally goes right, not all the times, so u can place u trade accordingly.
thavva Says:
April 28th, 2011
Posted at: 8:04 pm
Hi CB/Karthik/All, GE
Kb Says:
April 28th, 2011
Posted at: 8:14 pm
Hi Abdullah, Well. .. for each buyer, there is a seller :) so who is making shorts & who is making longs, & whats their strategy & how skilled they are? thats the point.
bored of this, lets talk about goa & scotch :P
niki Says:
April 28th, 2011
Posted at: 8:37 pm
hi karthik, wats ur view abt market tom? can i buy 6000 ce ?
thavva Says:
April 28th, 2011
Posted at: 8:39 pm
Hi Kb, :)
suzane Says:
April 28th, 2011
Posted at: 8:51 pm
what targdu u give me for gujratgas for tommorow?