Intraday calls for 27-01-12

Quotes with Resistance & Support

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Intraday calls for 27-01-12

Posted on: January 27th, 2012 at 8:21 am

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Markets likely to open higher, support for Nifty at 5120

Sell Tata Coffee on rise, around 908, for a target of 890, SL 920

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589 Responses

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Abdullah Says:
January 28th, 2012
Posted at: 10:56 pm
Hi Deepak Bedi, Since you are into candlesticks (no pun intended), let us analyse Hindalco from that perspective. It formed a rising window on 17th followed by a bearish harami on 18th. But that bearish harami was negated by another rising window on 19th. On 20th it formed a bearish candle which do not qualify to be a dark cloud cover. The gap up was only 20 paise and the high was again mere 20 paise more than the previous high. The low was below the previous candle's low and some sort of weakness was there. Since this candle was on 20th, which was a Friday, we can assume some sort of profit booking was happening while going for the holidays ahead. The moment trading started on the following Monday, i.e, 23rd, it opened lower. End result was we had a bearish candle on 23rd. Considering Friday's (20/1/2012) and Monday's (23/01/2012) candles both, we could have expected prices to fall down further, but the next day, i.e., on 24th, we had something like a bullish engulfing pattern. Note that the lows of 23rd and 24th were exactly the same, ie, 136.30. So, on 24th the candle was not a 100% bullish engulfing one. Note, I mentioned in my previous post that one of the major support is at 136.30. You said that on 25th, ie, last Wednesday (by mistake you thought it was Thursday, ie 26th, a Holiday) it formed a dark cloud cover. Well it didnot. Reason being, though Hindalco gapped up on Opening, but there was not significant retracement. At least a 50% retracement was needed on 25th vis a vis 24th to make that candle of 25th to be a dark cloud cover. Finally on the last trading day (27/1/2012), we may feel that it has formed a shooting star. I posted an analysis on that yesterday.
Candlestick patterns are good for analysis provided we take assistance of various other technical indicators to confirm our judgement. Depending only on candlestick patterns enhance our chance to be on the losing side.
As far as your PE in Hindalco is concerned, CB already replied. Lets hope for the best :)
sunil Says:
January 28th, 2012
Posted at: 11:05 pm
Cb, I was just trying to take advantage on Cash and futures arbitrage, where the premium will be high at start of month and during the expiry gap would narrow down and would expire at the same price so ur answer is this may not happen every time right?
CB Says:
January 28th, 2012
Posted at: 11:11 pm
Hi Abdullah,thanks for the detailed analysis
Hi sunil, usually this is the case.. but cannot be sure if this would be the case everytime.
Deepak Bedi Says:
January 28th, 2012
Posted at: 11:13 pm
Thanks Abdullah... Appreciate the long reply... Truthfully I'm a novice in technical analysis and my expertise comes from You Tube videos and reading the content on most trading sites... I trust your calls implicitly especially in technical analysis... Just wanted to get your perspective to see if my understanding was correct... Thanks once again for the detailed reply... You guys are doing an awesome job!!! And yeah hope Hindalco touches 125 in this series... I've already made a big big loss in the Jan series... :((
DJ Says:
January 28th, 2012
Posted at: 11:21 pm
Hey Abdul bhai
assalam walekum
thora ifci ka bhi chart aur pattern samjhao na boss,hindalco ki tarah plz Abdul bhai
Abdullah Says:
January 28th, 2012
Posted at: 11:22 pm
Hi sunil, Yes gap would narrow down but one can never be sure:
1) Whether spot will go up towards future price to fill the gap OR
2) Future will come down toward spot to fill the gap OR
3) Spot will go up by some points and simultaneously Future will come down by few points to fill the gap.
For arbitraging opportunities, Future prices should be discounted to their present values by simple or continuous compounding methods to see if there is a mismatch. If after that, we find future>spot, sell the future and buy spot OR if we find future<spot, sell the spot and buy future. But most of the times, prices are rational and above mentioned opportunities rarely exist
Kb Trader Says:
January 28th, 2012
Posted at: 11:50 pm
Hi Abdullah, wow. . cool long post.. but cant read now.. will do tomorrow. . good night.. . tc :)
Hi CB, Byeee.. gn
Abdullah Says:
January 28th, 2012
Posted at: 11:54 pm
Hi Deepak Bedi, most welcome. dont thank me, thank CB, Kartik who kindly allowed me to post a long view :)
Hi DJ, already told you yaar :) ab CB mujhe marega if I post a detailed analysis :)
Abdullah Says:
January 28th, 2012
Posted at: 11:56 pm
Hi Kb Trader, Good night doc :)
DJ Says:
January 29th, 2012
Posted at: 12:00 am
Hey Abdul bhai
U dont wanna tell me na...hmmm ok
Abdullah Says:
January 29th, 2012
Posted at: 12:02 am
Hi DJ, Will call u today, ie Sunday :) Why waste precious posting space in Neguide ?
DJ Says:
January 29th, 2012
Posted at: 12:06 am
Hmmm..Jagjit Singh sang this one..."Jaadu hai tilism tumhari zubaan mein..tum jhooth kah rahey thhey...mujhey aitbaar thha..
sunil Says:
January 29th, 2012
Posted at: 12:23 am
thanks cb, abdullah
Abdullah Says:
January 29th, 2012
Posted at: 12:32 am
Hi CB, most welcome and thanks again :)
Hi sunil, most welcome :)
CB Says:
January 29th, 2012
Posted at: 1:30 am
Hi Kb Trader, Good night
Hi sunil, most welcome. Good night
Hi Abdullah, Good night. .
Hi DJ, Good night.
CA.Tejas Says:
January 29th, 2012
Posted at: 11:00 am
Hi CB, GM, Can I buy Sintex 100 call at cmp...