LONDON: Investors begin the first full week of 2009 trading on Monday with one question in mind: Is the worst over? Given that a 38 per cent loss on the broad US S&P 500 stock index last year was actually one of the better performances on stock markets, it is hard for some investors to imagine otherwise.

Indeed, December ended on a rare up note, with global stocks putting in something of a rally.

MSCI’s main gauge of global stocks, its all-country world index, gained almost 3.6 per cent for the month, its first gain since May and the sixth best performance in two years.

Its generally riskier emerging market counterpart — one of the worst performers of 2008 with losses of 54.5 per cent — gained 7.6 per cent in December, also its first gain in seven months.

Some sentiment indicators, such as the Reuters monthly investment
polls, also showed some return to risk appetite.

So it would not be a major surprise if some of the most recent gains spilled over into the new year because many investors have argued that stocks are attractively priced.

Many are also expecting financial markets to return to more normal patterns during the year.

“Stocks are likely to recover in Q2/Q3 as the recession troughs in the US and other major economies, earnings begin to recover, led by financials, credit markets stabilise and deflation fears ease,” John Praveen, Prudential International Investments Advisers’ chief strategist said in a note.

But while few expect to experience again the kind of turmoil seen in 2008, there is little belief that any kind of new bull market is on the way.

“2009 is likely to be another volatile year for stocks,” Praveen wrote.

JUST THE JOB

There is, meanwhile, little optimism when it comes to the global economy. The year has already started with gloomy signs of recession, including dismal US manufacturing data.

Manufacturing in the euro zone was also bad, hitting a record low in December, according to data released at the end of last week. Factories in China, India and Russia slashed output and jobs at a record pace in the month.

This week’s big data report will come on Friday, when the United States issues its latest monthly jobs data. Economists are looking for job losses in the region of 475,000, which would be hefty, albeit an improvement on the month before.

The jobs report is crucial because it reflects everything from business activity to likely consumer spending patterns. The more people out of work, the less spending, the less chance of recovery and so on.

US President-elect Barack Obama also meets congressional leaders on Monday, with Democrats in Congress hoping to put a new stimulus bill on his desk by January 20 when he takes office, or shortly afterwards.

But while the state of the world economy will haunt financial markets, it does not necessarily walk with them hand in hand.

Because investors tend to discount the future in the prices of their assets, investment cycles often recover before economic ones. It is for this reason that some investors are gloomy about the economic climate but less so about such things as stocks.

“Whilst the economic picture is likely to deteriorate in 2009, the markets need not follow,” Keith Wade, chief economist and strategist at Schroders, said in an outlook. Wade also noted the yields on offer from government bonds are now so small that investors will almost perforce be attracted to other assets.

Ten-year US Treasury notes closed the year with a yield of just 2.22 per cent, while the euro zone equivalent was barely higher at 2.95 percent. Both have been driven down as bond prices, which move inversely with yields, have risen in an investor flight to safety.

Any sign of recovering risk appetite or even improved economic data could prompt a sell-off at such levels, at least in the short term.

“A rally in US Treasuries is coming to an end at the currently high levels. Maybe for the first two weeks of this year we will still be buoyant, but there is a risk that we will see the rally peter out as so much grim data is already priced into the market,” said Monument Securities trader Dean Matthews.

TROUBLE ABROAD

A relatively new wrinkle for investors in this first full week of the year, meanwhile, is a return of geopolitical risk in emerging markets.

As the old year ended, violence erupted in the Middle East with Israel bombarding Gaza in retaliation for rocket attacks.

Russia at least temporarily cut off gas supplies to neighbour Ukraine for failing to repay arrears.

Sri Lankan troops also began a new push against Tamil separatists in the north of the country.

Oil has already reacted to the Middle East tension, lifted off lows caused by severely weaker demand projections due to global recession.

But emerging markets debt analysts have suggested the impact of Russia’s spat with Ukraine may not be priced in.

It is all something new for investors to consider as they try to forget what for many was a historically terrible year.

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